Belleville Senators at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Belleville Senators

2:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

BELLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 2.61.8
High danger: 31
Chances: 127
Shots: 2620

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal20

12Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances1

2.64Expected goals1.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–15	2–5	2–1	0.5–1.4
2nd	11–2	6–0	1–0	1.2–0.1
3rd	11–3	4–2	0–0	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: +0.64

Michael Simpson

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: -1.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:47Helge Grans (0–1)medium · rebound · 46 ft · beat Michael Simpson
1st 7:00Penalty
1st 8:43Jan Jeník (1–1)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 9:35Rodrigo Abols (1–2)low · 36 ft · beat Michael Simpson
1st 12:10Penalty
2nd 12:17Penalty
2nd 14:14Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 0:46Wyatt Bongiovanni (2–2)low · 41 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 2:18Penalty
3rd 4:04Penalty
3rd 8:57Penalty
3rd 9:14Anthony Richard (2–3)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Michael Simpson
3rd 17:43Penalty
3rd 19:55Penalty