AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, January 15

Tucson Roadrunners at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Tucson Roadrunners
3:4
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

TUCCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
64%36%
xG
3.42.3
High danger
64
Chances
1211
Shots
3625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal25
12Scoring chances11
6High-danger chances4
3.41Expected goals2.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–114–33–11.2–0.8
2nd12–106–63–31.6–1.2
3rd12–42–20–00.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
3.41
GSAx
+0.41
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.35
GSAx
-1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:50Cameron Hebig (1–0)high · rebound · 15 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 1:18Penalty
  • 1st 4:27Hunter Brzustewicz (1–1)low · 67 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 9:11Penalty
  • 1st 13:26Cameron Hebig (2–1)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 13:42Penalty
  • 1st 16:08Penalty
  • 1st 16:08Penalty
  • 2nd 3:35Ilya Solovyov (2–2)low · wrist · 55 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 6:18Penalty
  • 2nd 10:55Ryan McGregor (3–2)grade A · backhand · 5 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 11:57Penalty
  • 2nd 12:26Martin Frk (3–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 21 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 15:16Penalty
  • 2nd 15:50Dryden Hunt (3–4)5v4 · medium · slap · 43 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 16:52Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 16:28Penalty