Ontario Reign at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Ontario Reign

2:5

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

ONTABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.81.9
High danger: 63
Chances: 136
Shots: 4421

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal21

13Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances3

3.83Expected goals1.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–9	6–1	2–0	1.3–0.6
2nd	15–8	6–4	3–3	1.5–1.0
3rd	14–4	1–1	1–0	1.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	18:41	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 42
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.83
GSAx: +1.83

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -3.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:15Penalty
1st 1:15Penalty
1st 6:41Penalty
1st 13:45Nate Smith (0–1)low · 12 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 15:32Penalty
2nd 3:28Penalty
2nd 7:25Penalty
2nd 15:04Nils Åman (0–2)low · 46 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 17:23Penalty
2nd 18:21Penalty
2nd 19:18Linus Karlsson (0–3)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 19:34Penalty
3rd 9:18Penalty
3rd 10:50Samuel Fagemo (1–3)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 15:25Cole McWard (1–4)low · 66 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 16:44Penalty
3rd 17:23Jeff Malott (2–4)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 19:15Samuel Blais (2–5)empty net · low · 64 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 19:52Penalty
3rd 19:52Penalty