AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, January 16

Henderson Silver Knights at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
3:6
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HSKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
42%58%
xG
3.44.1
High danger
55
Chances
1514
Shots
3334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal34
15Scoring chances14
5High-danger chances5
3.40Expected goals4.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–117–32–11.4–0.9
2nd8–164–80–30.8–2.4
3rd13–74–33–11.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
3.40
GSAx
+0.40
Akira Schmid
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.53
GSAx
-2.47
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
12
Saves
11
Allowed
1
xGA
1.55
GSAx
+0.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:38Logan Morrison (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 10:10Mason Morelli (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 12:12Penalty
  • 1st 14:36Penalty
  • 1st 17:58Penalty
  • 2nd 0:22Jani Nyman (1–2)low · 37 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 2:52Penalty
  • 2nd 2:52Penalty
  • 2nd 5:21Daniel Sprong (1–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 6:54Eduard Šalé (1–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 7:25Penalty
  • 2nd 10:47Jacob Melanson (1–5)medium · 24 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 10:59Jani Nyman (1–6)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 17:57Penalty
  • 3rd 0:24Tanner Laczynski (2–6)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 5:22Penalty
  • 3rd 11:00Cal Burke (3–6)low · rebound · 39 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 13:25Penalty