Belleville Senators at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Belleville Senators

1:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

BELHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

8%92%

xG: 1.33.4
High danger: 07
Chances: 512
Shots: 1535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal35

5Scoring chances12

0High-danger chances7

1.27Expected goals3.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	1–9	0–3	0–2	0.0–0.9
2nd	8–18	3–8	0–5	0.7–1.9
3rd	6–8	2–1	0–0	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	7:35 of the 3rd	12:25	12:25	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Simpson

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: -0.63

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 14
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.27
GSAx: +0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:58Penalty
1st 12:08Penalty
1st 17:29Penalty
1st 18:00Penalty
1st 18:47Alex Limoges (0–1)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Michael Simpson
2nd 5:07Penalty
2nd 13:14Mike Vecchione (0–2)high · 4 ft · beat Michael Simpson
2nd 17:20Angus Crookshank (1–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 19:47Luke Philp (1–3)high · 17 ft · beat Michael Simpson
3rd 7:35Aaron Ness (1–4)low · 34 ft · beat Michael Simpson
3rd 11:34Penalty
3rd 14:09Penalty