AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 17

Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs
6:3
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
53%47%
xG
4.24.5
High danger
117
Chances
1515
Shots
2944

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal44
15Scoring chances15
11High-danger chances7
4.22Expected goals4.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–115–44–01.7–0.8
2nd7–124–53–41.1–1.5
3rd8–216–64–31.4–2.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
44
Saves
41
Allowed
3
xGA
4.46
GSAx
+1.46
Dylan Ferguson
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
4.22
GSAx
-1.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:54Penalty
  • 1st 2:21Landon Slaggert (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 1st 2:32Paul Ludwinski (2–0)high · 10 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 1st 6:51Penalty
  • 1st 17:45Penalty
  • 1st 18:11Penalty
  • 1st 18:11Cole Guttman (3–0)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 1st 19:32Cole Guttman (4–0)high · 10 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 2nd 7:41Ben Jones (4–1)low · 23 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 8:35Penalty
  • 2nd 10:15Penalty
  • 2nd 14:43Penalty
  • 2nd 17:00Penalty
  • 2nd 19:09Bradley Marek (4–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 2:10Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Joseph Cecconi (4–3)low · 12 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 18:12Brett Seney (5–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 19:37Paul Ludwinski (6–3)empty net · medium · 17 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson