AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 18

Bakersfield Condors at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Bakersfield Condors
3:7
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

BAKCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.53.0
High danger
35
Chances
129
Shots
2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28
12Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances5
2.47Expected goals2.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–93–20–10.7–0.8
2nd10–66–21–11.2–1.0
3rd7–133–52–30.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK310:02 of the 3rd9:589:58+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
28
Saves
21
Allowed
7
xGA
2.99
GSAx
-4.01
Spencer Martin
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
2.47
GSAx
-0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:17Penalty
  • 1st 12:30Penalty
  • 1st 12:30Penalty
  • 1st 12:30Penalty
  • 1st 13:48Bradly Nadeau (0–1)5v4 · high · 36 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 14:37Connor Carrick (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 1st 15:41Bradly Nadeau (1–2)low · 32 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 5:40Nick Swaney (1–3)low · 40 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 6:03Cam Dineen (2–3)low · 62 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 6:18Penalty
  • 2nd 8:03Nikita Pavlychev (2–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 9:38Penalty
  • 2nd 12:52Penalty
  • 2nd 18:20Penalty
  • 3rd 5:07Penalty
  • 3rd 7:28Penalty
  • 3rd 10:02Nick Swaney (2–5)medium · 29 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 14:22Penalty
  • 3rd 15:48Penalty
  • 3rd 17:13Cameron Wright (3–5)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 3rd 17:57Josiah Slavin (3–6)empty net · high · 19 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 18:53Penalty
  • 3rd 18:53Penalty
  • 3rd 18:53Penalty
  • 3rd 19:39Danny Katic (3–7)5v4 · medium · 7 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue