AHLDashboard
Saturday, January 18

Henderson Silver Knights at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
1:0
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

HSKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
2.52.2
High danger
53
Chances
1110
Shots
2225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal25
11Scoring chances10
5High-danger chances3
2.53Expected goals2.17

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8765221.10.9
2nd8943311.00.7
3rd6912000.40.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
25
Saves
25
Allowed
0
xGA
2.17
GSAx
+2.17
Shots faced
22
Saves
21
Allowed
1
xGA
2.53
GSAx
+1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:40Penalty
  • 1st 7:41Penalty
  • 1st 15:23Penalty
  • 2nd 1:25Penalty
  • 2nd 12:07Penalty
  • 2nd 12:07Penalty
  • 2nd 13:35Penalty
  • 2nd 19:00Penalty
  • 3rd 4:47Penalty
  • 3rd 5:00Jonas Røndbjerg (1–0)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 9:04Penalty