AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 18

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds
4:6
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
54%46%
xG
2.72.4
High danger
56
Chances
1310
Shots
2520

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal20
13Scoring chances10
5High-danger chances6
2.74Expected goals2.44

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–86–42–21.2–1.1
2nd8–84–42–31.0–0.9
3rd9–43–21–10.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.74
GSAx
-1.26
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
20
Saves
14
Allowed
6
xGA
2.44
GSAx
-3.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:27Penalty
  • 1st 4:33Calle Rosén (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 4:45Luke Henman (1–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 1st 11:04Ty Nelson (2–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 1st 11:20Logan Morrison (3–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 1st 12:20Penalty
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 15:47Jacob MacDonald (3–2)5v4 · low · 33 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 1st 19:59Oskar Olausson (3–3)high · 11 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 0:46Penalty
  • 2nd 4:11Penalty
  • 2nd 5:39Penalty
  • 2nd 12:13Maroš Jedlička (3–4)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 4:47Tye Felhaber (3–5)high · 7 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 17:40Ryan Winterton (4–5)medium · 32 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 19:13Chris Wagner (4–6)empty net · low · 68 ft · beat Aleš Stezka