Rochester Americans at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Rochester Americans

4:5

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

ROCHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.52.8
High danger: 23
Chances: 1010
Shots: 3330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal30

10Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances3

2.54Expected goals2.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	2–2	1–1	0.8–0.4
2nd	6–14	3–4	0–0	0.6–1.1
3rd	16–11	5–4	1–2	1.2–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:45	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: -1.47

Michael Houser

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: -2.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:31Vsevolod Komarov (1–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 8:46Penalty
1st 8:46Penalty
1st 15:45Matt Strome (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Michael Houser
2nd 5:20Zach Metsa (2–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 15:28Penalty
2nd 16:52Chase Priskie (2–2)5v4 · medium · 9 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 1:25Ivan Miroshnichenko (2–3)high · 176 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 2:34Aleksandr Kisakov (3–3)high · 31 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 5:58Jon McDonald (3–4)low · 158 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 10:53Grant Cruikshank (3–5)high · 172 ft · beat Michael Houser
3rd 16:50Noah Östlund (4–5)medium · 176 ft · beat Clay Stevenson