AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 19

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds
4:2
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
2.63.2
High danger
69
Chances
911
Shots
2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26
9Scoring chances11
6High-danger chances9
2.61Expected goals3.22

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–93–22–20.9–1.0
2nd10–101–60–40.5–1.4
3rd10–75–34–31.3–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.61
GSAx
-1.39
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
26
Saves
24
Allowed
2
xGA
3.22
GSAx
+1.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:09Penalty
  • 1st 4:53Penalty
  • 1st 14:47Penalty
  • 1st 14:47Penalty
  • 1st 15:59Penalty
  • 2nd 1:35Penalty
  • 2nd 6:58Cale Fleury (1–0)low · 62 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 12:18Penalty
  • 2nd 12:18Penalty
  • 2nd 12:18Penalty
  • 2nd 15:06Tye Felhaber (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 15:19Penalty
  • 2nd 18:04Penalty
  • 2nd 18:46Jake Wise (1–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 17 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 14:47Penalty
  • 3rd 14:50Logan Morrison (2–2)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 15:29Lleyton Roed (3–2)low · 28 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 16:54Penalty
  • 3rd 18:13Ty Nelson (4–2)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese