San Jose Barracuda at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

San Jose Barracuda

4:5

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SJABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 2.03.8
High danger: 17
Chances: 712
Shots: 2629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal29

7Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances7

2.04Expected goals3.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	2–4	1–3	0.7–1.3
2nd	7–9	2–6	0–4	0.6–1.6
3rd	13–12	3–2	0–0	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	19:22 of the 3rd	0:38	0:38	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.80
GSAx: -1.20

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -1.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:15Penalty
1st 6:12Penalty
1st 7:06Justin Bailey (1–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 8:53Andrew Poturalski (2–0)low · 28 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 10:42Penalty
1st 11:09Penalty
1st 11:09Penalty
1st 13:28Penalty
1st 14:12Nils Åman (2–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 14:34Penalty
1st 14:34Penalty
1st 17:13Cole McWard (2–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 19:56Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 1:54Aatu Räty (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
2nd 11:13Penalty
2nd 12:29Penalty
2nd 15:59Penalty
2nd 15:59Penalty
2nd 16:51Luca Cagnoni (3–3)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 0:07Ethan Cardwell (4–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 1:19Linus Karlsson (4–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 19:22Jonathan Lekkerimäki (4–5)low · 12 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere