Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets

2:1

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 2.12.8
High danger: 25
Chances: 713
Shots: 1827

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal27

7Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances5

2.15Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	4–7	2–4	1.4–1.4
2nd	5–10	3–3	0–1	0.5–0.7
3rd	5–7	0–3	0–0	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: +1.77

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: +0.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:01Xavier Parent (1–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 13:22Penalty
1st 18:26Penalty
2nd 0:54Logan Brown (1–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 2:09Penalty
2nd 18:27Penalty
2nd 18:27Penalty
2nd 19:40Xavier Parent (2–1)medium · 37 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 13:12Penalty