Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders

4:3

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 4.73.2
High danger: 93
Chances: 1711
Shots: 4241

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal41

17Scoring chances11

9High-danger chances3

4.73Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–15	2–4	1–2	0.6–1.1
2nd	23–18	11–5	5–1	2.8–1.5
3rd	10–8	4–2	3–0	1.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 38
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.73
GSAx: +0.73

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 38
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +0.19

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:45Samuel Johannesson (0–1)low · 54 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 7:18Penalty
1st 13:07Penalty
1st 17:40Simon Robertsson (0–2)low · 57 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 18:42Penalty
1st 18:42Penalty
2nd 2:25Penalty
2nd 3:21Chris Terry (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 7:01Penalty
2nd 7:14Liam Foudy (2–2)4v5 · medium · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 14:17Penalty
2nd 14:17Penalty
3rd 3:19Penalty
3rd 4:58Hugh McGing (2–3)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 6:03Liam Foudy (3–3)high · 16 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 9:54Eetu Liukas (4–3)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 13:53Penalty
3rd 13:53Penalty