AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, January 20

Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights
5:4
Final / OT
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
2.82.0
High danger
44
Chances
98
Shots
3122

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal22
9Scoring chances8
4High-danger chances4
2.79Expected goals2.05

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–112–50–30.6–1.2
2nd12–95–23–11.1–0.7
3rd9–21–10–00.5–0.2
OT1–01–01–00.5–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK212:09 of the 3rd7:516:25+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
2.79
GSAx
-2.21
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
22
Saves
18
Allowed
4
xGA
2.05
GSAx
-1.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:19Curtis Douglas (0–1)high · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 6:52Travis Barron (0–2)high · 12 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 7:19Mason Morelli (1–2)low · 33 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 12:11Penalty
  • 2nd 2:47Penalty
  • 2nd 2:47Penalty
  • 2nd 9:11Penalty
  • 2nd 9:11Penalty
  • 2nd 9:11Penalty
  • 2nd 9:11Penalty
  • 2nd 11:15Penalty
  • 2nd 11:15Penalty
  • 2nd 12:56Max Szuber (1–3)low · 63 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 13:08Cameron Hebig (1–4)high · 14 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 16:06Penalty
  • 2nd 17:54Penalty
  • 2nd 17:54Braeden Bowman (2–4)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 17:44Matyas Sapovaliv (3–4)low · 36 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:34Kai Uchacz (4–4)medium · 46 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • OT 2:51Tanner Laczynski (5–4)grade A · 20 ft · beat Matthew Villalta