AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, January 21

Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights
7:3
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
3.53.4
High danger
64
Chances
1710
Shots
3241

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal41
17Scoring chances10
6High-danger chances4
3.49Expected goals3.36

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–138–64–31.8–1.4
2nd9–134–10–10.8–1.0
3rd10–155–32–01.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC34:21 of the 3rd15:3915:39+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid
Shots faced
41
Saves
38
Allowed
3
xGA
3.36
GSAx
+0.36
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
32
Saves
25
Allowed
7
xGA
3.49
GSAx
-3.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:59Austin Poganski (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 4:46Penalty
  • 1st 5:10Raphael Lavoie (1–1)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 9:47Calen Addison (2–1)low · 59 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 11:45Raphael Lavoie (3–1)high · 5 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 12:25Penalty
  • 1st 12:25Penalty
  • 1st 13:01Kailer Yamamoto (3–2)high · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 18:36Kailer Yamamoto (3–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 3:40Grigori Denisenko (4–3)medium · 31 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 8:44Penalty
  • 2nd 11:08Penalty
  • 2nd 14:05Brandon Hickey (5–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 4:21Jonas Røndbjerg (6–3)medium · 20 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 13:34Penalty
  • 3rd 17:33Christoffer Sedoff (7–3)empty net · low · 54 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber