Calgary Wranglers at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Calgary Wranglers

1:6

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

CGYONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 1.73.8
High danger: 37
Chances: 717
Shots: 2033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal33

7Scoring chances17

3High-danger chances7

1.72Expected goals3.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	3–4	2–1	0.6–1.0
2nd	9–18	3–10	0–4	0.7–2.2
3rd	5–7	1–3	1–2	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: -1.87

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: +0.72

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 6
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.72
GSAx: -0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:51Penalty
1st 16:35Penalty
1st 16:35Penalty
1st 16:35David Silye (1–0)high · 11 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 18:18Penalty
1st 19:33Charles Hudon (1–1)5v4 · low · 32 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 0:11Penalty
2nd 1:42Andre Lee (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 41 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 3:55Taylor Ward (1–3)high · 21 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 6:14Penalty
2nd 6:58Penalty
2nd 13:56Tyler Madden (1–4)low · 30 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 16:57Penalty
2nd 17:12Francesco Pinelli (1–5)4v5 · high · 12 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 4:54Penalty
3rd 7:31Samuel Fagemo (1–6)medium · 14 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 7:49Penalty
3rd 11:43Penalty