Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

4:5

Final / OT

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 3.64.1
High danger: 67
Chances: 917
Shots: 3442

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal42

9Scoring chances17

6High-danger chances7

3.61Expected goals4.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–16	1–6	1–2	0.7–1.6
2nd	7–20	3–8	1–5	1.0–1.9
3rd	14–5	5–3	4–0	1.7–0.5
OT	2–1	0–0	0–0	0.2–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:30	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 37
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.08
GSAx: -0.92

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.61
GSAx: -0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 2:37Anthony Angello (0–1)low · 45 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 5:21Turner Ottenbreit (0–2)low · 47 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 9:04Jackson Cates (1–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 16:38Penalty
3rd 3:17Marcel Marcel (2–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 6:14Landon Slaggert (3–2)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 7:11Matteo Pietroniro (4–2)low · 54 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 7:34Ozzy Wiesblatt (4–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 12:55Penalty
3rd 18:26Cal O’Reilly (4–4)medium · 40 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
OT 3:32Anders Bjork (4–5)low · 39 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks