Toronto Marlies at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Toronto Marlies

3:1

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TORBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 1.71.7
High danger: 23
Chances: 86
Shots: 2019

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal19

8Scoring chances6

2High-danger chances3

1.73Expected goals1.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	4–3	1–1	0.7–0.9
2nd	8–2	3–0	1–0	0.7–0.1
3rd	6–6	1–3	0–2	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: -1.27

Matt Murray

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: +0.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:19Seth Griffith (0–1)medium · slap · rebound · 40 ft · beat Matt Murray
1st 13:38Alex Steeves (1–1)high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 15:48Penalty
2nd 4:06Penalty
2nd 5:13Alex Steeves (2–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 39 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 8:06Penalty
2nd 10:09Penalty
2nd 12:20Penalty
3rd 4:44Penalty
3rd 6:34Penalty
3rd 11:03Penalty
3rd 17:19Penalty
3rd 18:44Joseph Blandisi (3–1)empty net · low · wrist · 106 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue