Grand Rapids Griffins at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Grand Rapids Griffins

5:4

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

GRMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 2.15.2
High danger: 28
Chances: 918
Shots: 2943

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal43

9Scoring chances18

2High-danger chances8

2.10Expected goals5.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–18	2–7	0–2	0.3–1.8
2nd	9–15	3–7	1–3	0.7–1.6
3rd	15–10	4–4	1–3	1.1–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 39
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.21
GSAx: +1.21

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: -2.90

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:26Tim Gettinger (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 11:02Penalty
1st 13:51Penalty
1st 18:15C.J. Suess (1–1)high · 16 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 1:28Ben King (1–2)high · 14 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 12:02Parker Ford (1–3)low · 35 ft · beat Ville Husso
3rd 1:09Penalty
3rd 1:52Joe Snively (2–3)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 3:39Ondrej Becher (3–3)medium · rebound · 55 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 5:25Brogan Rafferty (4–3)low · 56 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 10:11Sheldon Dries (5–3)low · 30 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 19:48Parker Ford (5–4)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Ville Husso