Laval Rocket at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Laval Rocket

4:3

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

LAVHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 4.73.4
High danger: 127
Chances: 1713
Shots: 3830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal30

17Scoring chances13

12High-danger chances7

4.74Expected goals3.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–7	7–2	5–1	2.1–0.5
2nd	16–11	7–6	4–4	1.8–1.4
3rd	7–12	3–5	3–2	0.8–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:50	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.74
GSAx: +0.74

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:44Penalty
1st 7:45Logan Mailloux (1–0)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 13:44Penalty
1st 14:44Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–1)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 15:52Owen Beck (2–1)low · 36 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 1:30Laurent Dauphin (3–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 5:09Penalty
3rd 1:34Penalty
3rd 3:23Penalty
3rd 7:22Penalty
3rd 8:14Penalty
3rd 10:52Brett Berard (3–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 11:05Penalty
3rd 14:26Penalty
3rd 14:49Penalty
3rd 18:10Brennan Othmann (3–3)grade A · 7 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 19:24Logan Mailloux (4–3)low · 45 ft · beat Louis Domingue