AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 24

Bridgeport Islanders at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Bridgeport Islanders
5:2
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

BRISYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
3.13.5
High danger
50
Chances
1313
Shots
2345

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal45
13Scoring chances13
5High-danger chances0
3.06Expected goals3.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–152–10–00.4–0.8
2nd13–128–35–02.2–1.0
3rd5–183–90–00.5–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SYR−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SYR30:00 of the 3rd20:0010:53+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
45
Saves
43
Allowed
2
xGA
3.48
GSAx
+1.48
Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
3.06
GSAx
-1.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:12William Dufour (1–0)medium · 32 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 8:47Penalty
  • 2nd 2:58Chris Terry (2–0)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 3:47Penalty
  • 2nd 4:00Gemel Smith (3–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 7:46Penalty
  • 2nd 10:44Penalty
  • 2nd 11:24Chris Terry (4–0)5v4 · high · 36 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 11:58Penalty
  • 2nd 15:48Tristan Allard (4–1)low · 26 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 1:56Penalty
  • 3rd 3:02Jujhar Khaira (4–2)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 7:55Penalty
  • 3rd 17:21Penalty
  • 3rd 17:21Liam Foudy (5–2)empty net · medium · 4 ft · beat Matt Tomkins