Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

3:5

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

WBSUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.52.6
High danger: 34
Chances: 910
Shots: 3527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal27

9Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances4

2.52Expected goals2.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–10	3–4	2–2	1.1–1.0
2nd	10–11	3–4	1–2	0.8–1.1
3rd	9–6	3–2	0–0	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: -0.48

Tristan Jarry

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -2.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:36Brian Halonen (0–1)low · 57 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
1st 11:07Dan Renouf (1–1)low · 37 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 12:03Penalty
1st 16:01Colton White (1–2)low · 68 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
1st 16:29Penalty
2nd 2:31Xavier Parent (1–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
2nd 12:31Penalty
2nd 14:21Jesse Puljujärvi (2–3)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 19:29Penalty
3rd 10:33Xavier Parent (2–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
3rd 18:14Sam Poulin (3–4)medium · 20 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 19:46Ryan Schmelzer (3–5)empty net · low · 131 ft · beat Tristan Jarry