AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 24

Charlotte Checkers at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Charlotte Checkers
1:4
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CLTMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
3.71.3
High danger
32
Chances
136
Shots
4315

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

43Shots on goal15
13Scoring chances6
3High-danger chances2
3.66Expected goals1.30

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st15–36–02–01.7–0.1
2nd9–80–40–10.4–0.8
3rd19–47–21–11.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
43
Saves
42
Allowed
1
xGA
3.66
GSAx
+2.66
Ken Appleby
Shots faced
15
Saves
11
Allowed
4
xGA
1.30
GSAx
-2.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:27Penalty
  • 1st 9:31Penalty
  • 1st 12:34Penalty
  • 1st 14:45Penalty
  • 1st 19:48Penalty
  • 2nd 0:16Penalty
  • 2nd 3:52Penalty
  • 2nd 3:52Penalty
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 6:28Cal O’Reilly (0–1)high · 7 ft · beat Ken Appleby
  • 2nd 11:32Penalty
  • 2nd 15:16Penalty
  • 2nd 19:13Penalty
  • 2nd 19:45Penalty
  • 3rd 1:48John Leonard (1–1)medium · rebound · 28 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 2:55Ryder Rolston (1–2)medium · 26 ft · beat Ken Appleby
  • 3rd 9:32Penalty
  • 3rd 11:11Penalty
  • 3rd 18:13Kevin Gravel (1–3)empty net · low · 22 ft · beat Ken Appleby
  • 3rd 18:59Jake Lucchini (1–4)empty net · high · 18 ft · beat Ken Appleby