Abbotsford Canucks at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Abbotsford Canucks

3:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ABBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.03.1
High danger: 37
Chances: 612
Shots: 2623

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal23

6Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances7

2.01Expected goals3.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	4–3	3–1	1.1–0.6
2nd	6–10	2–7	0–5	0.5–1.7
3rd	8–7	0–2	0–1	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	19:39 of the 3rd	0:21	0:21	+0.006 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: -0.99

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: +1.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:13Max Szuber (0–1)medium · rebound · 58 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 1:46Dino Kambeitz (1–1)low · 65 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 6:08Penalty
1st 16:29Penalty
2nd 0:23Penalty
2nd 0:43Penalty
2nd 3:28Penalty
2nd 5:59Penalty
2nd 8:16Penalty
2nd 10:43Penalty
2nd 18:07Artem Duda (1–2)low · 52 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 18:56Penalty
3rd 8:06Erik Brännström (2–2)low · 40 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 8:24Penalty
3rd 19:39Jonathan Lekkerimäki (3–2)low · 61 ft · beat Matthew Villalta