AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 25

Toronto Marlies at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Toronto Marlies
4:3
Final / OT
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

TORSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
55%45%
xG
3.83.2
High danger
66
Chances
1410
Shots
3033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal33
14Scoring chances10
6High-danger chances6
3.78Expected goals3.21

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–174–32–11.0–1.2
2nd11–104–42–31.0–1.2
3rd10–65–31–21.2–0.8
OT2–01–01–00.6–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ116:56 of the 3rd3:042:50+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
3.21
GSAx
+0.21
Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
3.78
GSAx
-0.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:20Penalty
  • 1st 14:39Penalty
  • 1st 16:12Andrew Poturalski (0–1)5v4 · medium · rebound · 9 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 19:30Penalty
  • 2nd 1:44Jack Thompson (0–2)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 12:18Alex Steeves (1–2)low · 45 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 18:35Nick Abruzzese (2–2)low · 48 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 19:46Penalty
  • 2nd 19:46Penalty
  • 3rd 4:21Penalty
  • 3rd 6:22Joseph Blandisi (3–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 7:52Penalty
  • 3rd 15:16Penalty
  • 3rd 15:16Penalty
  • 3rd 15:16Penalty
  • 3rd 19:03Penalty
  • 3rd 19:46Jimmy Schuldt (3–3)4v5 · grade A · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • OT 1:05Logan Shaw (4–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Georgii Romanov