AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 25

Rochester Americans at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Rochester Americans
6:3
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

ROCHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
80%20%
xG
5.02.6
High danger
133
Chances
1910
Shots
3929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal29
19Scoring chances10
13High-danger chances3
4.97Expected goals2.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–46–32–11.3–0.5
2nd17–124–44–21.2–1.1
3rd10–139–37–02.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD34:10 of the 3rd15:5011:51+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand
Shots faced
39
Saves
33
Allowed
6
xGA
4.97
GSAx
-1.03
Felix Sandström
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.60
GSAx
-0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:57Penalty
  • 1st 9:08Penalty
  • 1st 9:08Mason Jobst (1–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 1st 17:01Penalty
  • 1st 19:57Isak Rosén (2–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 8:38Kale Clague (3–0)low · 32 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 17:08Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 2nd 17:14Penalty
  • 2nd 19:12Anton Blidh (3–1)medium · rebound · 14 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 2:15Penalty
  • 3rd 3:29Penalty
  • 3rd 4:01Penalty
  • 3rd 4:01Penalty
  • 3rd 4:10Isak Rosén (4–1)5v4 · grade A · 30 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 5:24Penalty
  • 3rd 6:20Brett Murray (5–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 7:07Jaroslav Chmelar (5–2)low · 38 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 3rd 7:42Penalty
  • 3rd 8:10Brennan Othmann (5–3)5v4 · low · 36 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 3rd 10:07Penalty
  • 3rd 19:32Noah Östlund (6–3)empty net · grade A · 5 ft · beat Dylan Garand