Cleveland Monsters at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Cleveland Monsters

3:4

Final / OT

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

CLESYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 1.25.4
High danger: 28
Chances: 516
Shots: 1447

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

14Shots on goal47

5Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances8

1.19Expected goals5.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–23	2–5	1–3	0.5–1.9
2nd	4–10	2–4	1–3	0.4–1.2
3rd	2–13	1–7	0–2	0.2–2.2
OT	1–1	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:55	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 47
Saves: 43
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.35
GSAx: +1.35

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 11
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.19
GSAx: -1.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:12Owen Sillinger (1–0)high · 14 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 11:04Penalty
1st 14:04Dylan Gambrell (2–0)4v5 · medium · 23 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 14:17Penalty
2nd 7:25Penalty
2nd 13:26Declan Carlile (2–1)grade A · 9 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 1:31Gabriel Fortier (2–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 3:34Penalty
3rd 11:28Penalty
3rd 16:03Gage Goncalves (2–3)grade A · rebound · 44 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 18:14Penalty
3rd 18:51Gavin Brindley (3–3)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
OT 1:11Gage Goncalves (3–4)low · 31 ft · beat Jet Greaves