AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 25

Hershey Bears at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Hershey Bears
5:3
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

HERBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
3.92.1
High danger
62
Chances
116
Shots
3520

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal20
11Scoring chances6
6High-danger chances2
3.88Expected goals2.06

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–42–21–01.1–0.4
2nd13–56–24–21.9–0.8
3rd10–113–21–00.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Simpson
Shots faced
35
Saves
30
Allowed
5
xGA
3.88
GSAx
-1.12
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
20
Saves
17
Allowed
3
xGA
2.06
GSAx
-0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:42Penalty
  • 1st 3:32Wyatt Bongiovanni (0–1)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 14:29Penalty
  • 1st 19:29Penalty
  • 2nd 0:50Alex Limoges (1–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Michael Simpson
  • 2nd 3:15Penalty
  • 2nd 13:00Penalty
  • 2nd 13:42Penalty
  • 2nd 14:56Chase Priskie (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Michael Simpson
  • 2nd 16:36Stephen Halliday (2–2)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 18:30Penalty
  • 2nd 18:30Penalty
  • 2nd 19:54Jon McDonald (3–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Michael Simpson
  • 3rd 2:20Zac Funk (4–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Michael Simpson
  • 3rd 5:12Maxence Guenette (4–3)low · 24 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 7:40Mike Vecchione (5–3)low · 36 ft · beat Michael Simpson
  • 3rd 9:38Penalty
  • 3rd 19:10Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty