AHLDashboard
Saturday, January 25

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
0:3
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
1.91.8
High danger
12
Chances
55
Shots
2721

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal21
5Scoring chances5
1High-danger chances2
1.92Expected goals1.79

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9811010.40.6
2nd6611000.40.4
3rd12733111.10.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
27
Saves
27
Allowed
0
xGA
1.92
GSAx
+1.92
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
1.79
GSAx
-1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:24Penalty
  • 1st 14:27Taylor Ward (0–1)low · 25 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 16:31Jack Studnicka (0–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 17:21Penalty
  • 3rd 12:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:22Jeff Malott (0–3)empty net · low · 32 ft · beat Nikke Kokko