San Diego Gulls at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

San Diego Gulls

5:7

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

SDCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 3.23.2
High danger: 45
Chances: 914
Shots: 3527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal27

9Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances5

3.18Expected goals3.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	2–4	0–1	0.8–0.8
2nd	7–12	4–6	2–2	0.7–1.2
3rd	18–7	3–4	2–2	1.8–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	16:31 of the 3rd	3:29	3:29	+0.016 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: -1.82

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 20
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.17
GSAx: -3.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:56Carson Meyer (1–0)low · wrist · 43 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
1st 18:13Tristan Luneau (2–0)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 1:39Sam Colangelo (3–0)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 5:58Yan Kuznetsov (3–1)low · wrist · 67 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 6:04Penalty
2nd 6:04Penalty
2nd 8:56Penalty
2nd 9:32Tyson Barrie (3–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 55 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 11:25Penalty
2nd 12:35Adam Klapka (3–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 16:45David Silye (3–4)medium · backhand · 13 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 16:52Sasha Pastujov (4–4)medium · wrist · 24 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 5:34Penalty
3rd 6:35William Strömgren (4–5)5v4 · medium · slap · 32 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 16:19Penalty
3rd 16:31Sam Morton (4–6)4v5 · grade A · backhand · rebound · 4 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 19:19Ryan Carpenter (5–6)grade A · wrist · rebound · 7 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 19:57Martin Frk (5–7)empty net · medium · wrist · 25 ft · beat Calle Clang