Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:3

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.83.8
High danger: 44
Chances: 1614
Shots: 4238

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal38

16Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances4

3.78Expected goals3.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–16	5–6	1–1	1.2–1.4
2nd	15–11	5–3	1–0	1.3–0.8
3rd	13–11	6–5	2–3	1.3–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 40
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.78
GSAx: +1.78

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.75
GSAx: +0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:36Nikita Alexandrov (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 7:49Matthew Kessel (0–2)low · 43 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 18:50Penalty
1st 19:51Penalty
2nd 2:40Penalty
2nd 3:01Brennan Othmann (1–2)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 19:11Penalty
3rd 1:27Penalty
3rd 1:59Penalty
3rd 3:19Anton Blidh (2–2)low · 35 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 8:27Matthew Peca (2–3)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 8:39Penalty
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 11:50Penalty
3rd 12:26Penalty