Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars

4:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 3.53.7
High danger: 54
Chances: 1316
Shots: 3446

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal46

13Scoring chances16

5High-danger chances4

3.48Expected goals3.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–21	3–10	1–3	0.9–1.9
2nd	16–5	5–3	2–1	1.5–0.5
3rd	10–20	5–3	2–0	1.1–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	3:53 of the 3rd	16:07	11:32	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 46
Saves: 43
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.73
GSAx: +0.73

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.48
GSAx: -0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:11Adam Raška (0–1)low · tip · 16 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 10:29Penalty
1st 12:47Penalty
2nd 7:25Penalty
2nd 10:43Penalty
2nd 11:20Justin Hryckowian (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 17 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 13:35Penalty
3rd 0:21Cameron Hughes (2–1)high · 6 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 3:13Matěj Blümel (3–1)low · 30 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 3:53Antonio Stranges (4–1)high · tip · 17 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 7:34Adam Raška (4–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 11:13Penalty
3rd 19:31Brendan Gaunce (4–3)medium · 5 ft · beat Rémi Poirier