Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors

3:2

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 15
Chances: 910
Shots: 2832

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal32

9Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances5

2.20Expected goals2.95

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–16	3–5	1–3	0.5–1.5
2nd	10–8	3–3	0–1	0.9–0.7
3rd	12–8	3–2	0–1	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: +0.95

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: -0.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:08Penalty
1st 12:06Jacob Perreault (1–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 14:09Penalty
2nd 10:25Penalty
2nd 10:25Penalty
2nd 13:36Alex Swetlikoff (2–0)low · 34 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 16:03Jagger Firkus (2–1)high · 18 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 16:52Cam Dineen (3–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 6:38Ryan Winterton (3–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 19:58Penalty