Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

1:4

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.02.5
High danger: 55
Chances: 710
Shots: 2225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances5

2.04Expected goals2.48

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–3	1–2	0.6–0.7
2nd	10–13	5–4	4–2	1.3–1.3
3rd	5–5	0–3	0–1	0.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.48
GSAx: -1.52

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: +1.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:34Penalty
1st 9:34Penalty
1st 9:34Penalty
1st 9:34Penalty
1st 11:19Penalty
1st 19:48Penalty
2nd 2:50Penalty
2nd 3:25Penalty
2nd 10:32Joey Anderson (1–0)high · 7 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 11:02William Wallinder (1–1)low · 57 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 3:06Alex Doucet (1–2)high · 6 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 11:37Carson Bantle (1–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 18:07Austin Watson (1–4)empty net · low · 154 ft · beat Drew Commesso