Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

0:9

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

18%82%

xG: 1.83.2
High danger: 25
Chances: 515
Shots: 2733

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal33

5Scoring chances15

2High-danger chances5

1.76Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–15	3–7	1–1	0.6–1.4
2nd	7–11	0–6	0–4	0.2–1.3
3rd	11–7	2–2	1–0	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	8	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 27
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.76
GSAx: +1.76

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.52
GSAx: -1.48

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 8
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.67
GSAx: -4.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:39Ville Koivunen (0–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 4:54Penalty
1st 6:42Vasily Ponomarev (0–2)5v4 · low · 67 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 9:12Vasily Ponomarev (0–3)low · 9 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 14:15Ville Koivunen (0–4)high · 11 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 19:35Penalty
2nd 1:36Ville Koivunen (0–5)5v4 · low · 40 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 7:02Sam Poulin (0–6)high · 16 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 13:09Ville Koivunen (0–7)high · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 17:28Filip Král (0–8)medium · 31 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 17:45Penalty
3rd 2:53Penalty
3rd 2:53Penalty
3rd 3:17Vasily Ponomarev (0–9)medium · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 9:34Penalty
3rd 11:36Penalty