AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, January 29

Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars
1:2
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.72.6
High danger
25
Chances
810
Shots
3728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal28
8Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances5
2.71Expected goals2.57

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–70–20–00.3–0.6
2nd10–115–42–21.2–1.0
3rd18–103–40–31.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
37
Saves
36
Allowed
1
xGA
2.71
GSAx
+1.71
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.57
GSAx
+0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:25Penalty
  • 1st 12:07Penalty
  • 2nd 2:26Penalty
  • 2nd 3:26Scott Reedy (0–1)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 7:48Kyle Marino (0–2)high · rebound · 35 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 8:50Penalty
  • 2nd 10:47Kole Lind (1–2)4v5 · medium · 7 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 7:44Penalty
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty