Manitoba Moose at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Manitoba Moose

1:3

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MBCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.31.6
High danger: 12
Chances: 46
Shots: 1722

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal22

4Scoring chances6

1High-danger chances2

1.27Expected goals1.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–2	0–1	0.4–0.7
2nd	4–6	1–2	0–0	0.3–0.4
3rd	7–6	2–2	1–1	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	13:15 of the 3rd	6:45	3:49	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: -1.36

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 16
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.27
GSAx: +0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:51Penalty
1st 2:51Penalty
1st 2:51Penalty
1st 2:51Penalty
1st 8:53Penalty
1st 10:02Nick Swaney (0–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 18:25Penalty
1st 19:00Penalty
2nd 13:10Penalty
2nd 18:20Penalty
3rd 4:03Penalty
3rd 13:15Ryan Suzuki (0–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 14:00Ben King (1–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 19:27Justin Robidas (1–3)empty net · low · 108 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen