AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, January 29

Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
2:4
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
1.64.0
High danger
36
Chances
513
Shots
2336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal36
5Scoring chances13
3High-danger chances6
1.63Expected goals3.98

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–92–11–10.5–0.5
2nd6–180–80–40.2–2.3
3rd12–93–42–10.9–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
36
Saves
32
Allowed
4
xGA
3.98
GSAx
-0.02
Collin Delia
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
1.63
GSAx
-0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:32Penalty
  • 1st 1:30Kai Uchacz (1–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 19 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 1st 15:20Penalty
  • 1st 15:23Penalty
  • 2nd 2:27Penalty
  • 2nd 2:27Penalty
  • 2nd 10:58Penalty
  • 2nd 10:58Penalty
  • 2nd 14:52Penalty
  • 2nd 15:25Matthew Savoie (1–1)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 21 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 19:38Ethan de Jong (1–2)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 7:06Drake Caggiula (1–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 13 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 11:34Brendan Brisson (2–3)low · slap · 11 ft · beat Collin Delia
  • 3rd 13:38Penalty
  • 3rd 19:03Seth Griffith (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 87 ft · beat Carl Lindbom