Colorado Eagles at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Colorado Eagles

4:2

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

COLONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 1.92.1
High danger: 21
Chances: 77
Shots: 2526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal26

7Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances1

1.85Expected goals2.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	1–1	0–0	0.4–0.6
2nd	12–10	6–3	2–0	1.1–0.8
3rd	6–8	0–3	0–1	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.12
GSAx: +0.12

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.85
GSAx: -2.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:26Jack Studnicka (0–1)low · 18 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 7:28Penalty
1st 12:43Jacob MacDonald (1–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 11:48Jake Wise (2–1)high · 14 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 16:20Calle Rosén (3–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 18:47Penalty
2nd 19:28Nikita Prishchepov (4–1)4v5 · high · 20 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 18:28Penalty
3rd 19:43Martin Chromiak (4–2)5v4 · low · 39 ft · beat Trent Miner