Toronto Marlies at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Toronto Marlies

5:3

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TORSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 3.12.1
High danger: 41
Chances: 109
Shots: 3624

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal24

10Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances1

3.14Expected goals2.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	2–2	0–0	0.7–0.5
2nd	13–10	2–5	1–1	0.8–1.1
3rd	13–7	6–2	3–0	1.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:49	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 31
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: -1.86

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: -0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:39Alex Steeves (1–0)low · 35 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 16:48Penalty
2nd 3:11Penalty
2nd 4:15Sasha Pastujov (1–1)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 8:55Penalty
2nd 9:58Zach Solow (2–1)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 14:13Penalty
2nd 18:02Penalty
2nd 18:52Justin Bailey (2–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 19:16Penalty
3rd 7:41Zach Solow (3–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 10:31Cédric Paré (4–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 10:37Penalty
3rd 10:37Penalty
3rd 10:58Penalty
3rd 12:54Rodwin Dionicio (4–3)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 18:05Kyle Clifford (5–3)empty net · low · 47 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 18:44Penalty
3rd 18:44Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty