Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:3

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

WBSCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.83.7
High danger: 611
Chances: 1119
Shots: 2328

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal28

11Scoring chances19

6High-danger chances11

2.84Expected goals3.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	5–6	3–3	1.3–1.2
2nd	9–10	3–8	3–5	1.1–1.6
3rd	4–9	3–5	0–3	0.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Tristan Jarry

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.74
GSAx: +0.74

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:16Penalty
1st 13:20Penalty
1st 14:21John Leonard (0–1)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
1st 16:29Penalty
2nd 1:36Penalty
2nd 7:52Will Lockwood (0–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
2nd 10:48Penalty
2nd 12:32Sam Poulin (1–2)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 13:07Penalty
2nd 16:11Penalty
2nd 19:38Sandis Vilmanis (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Tristan Jarry
3rd 9:56Ville Koivunen (2–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 15:46Penalty