Providence Bruins at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse · Cleveland, OH

Providence Bruins

4:2

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

PROCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 3.02.4
High danger: 51
Chances: 128
Shots: 2629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances1

2.98Expected goals2.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–13	3–4	2–0	0.8–1.2
2nd	11–9	6–1	1–1	1.1–0.6
3rd	6–7	3–3	2–0	1.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.41
GSAx: +0.41

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.98
GSAx: -1.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:24Riley Tufte (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Jet Greaves
1st 2:41Penalty
1st 7:12Penalty
1st 14:13Samuel Knazko (1–1)low · 28 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 18:02Riley Tufte (2–1)low · 37 ft · beat Jet Greaves
2nd 3:11Penalty
2nd 13:58Penalty
2nd 17:53Penalty
3rd 0:37Stefan Matteau (2–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 4:04Penalty
3rd 4:25Ian Mitchell (3–2)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 10:44Penalty
3rd 11:52Penalty
3rd 11:52Penalty
3rd 11:52Penalty
3rd 12:13Penalty
3rd 19:36Patrick Brown (4–2)empty net · low · 24 ft · beat Jet Greaves