AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 31

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
3:2
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
1.91.6
High danger
13
Chances
67
Shots
2518

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal18
6Scoring chances7
1High-danger chances3
1.90Expected goals1.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–84–41–21.0–0.9
2nd9–72–20–00.5–0.4
3rd7–30–10–10.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
1.90
GSAx
-1.10
Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
18
Saves
16
Allowed
2
xGA
1.60
GSAx
-0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:48Penalty
  • 1st 0:48Penalty
  • 1st 2:38Penalty
  • 1st 5:59Penalty
  • 1st 5:59Penalty
  • 1st 5:59Penalty
  • 1st 7:16Dominic Toninato (1–0)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 14:57Penalty
  • 1st 15:15Dylan Coghlan (2–0)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 15:42Anthony Angello (2–1)low · 22 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 17:53Penalty
  • 2nd 4:48Ondrej Pavel (2–2)low · 33 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 13:19Mason Shaw (3–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 18:04Penalty
  • 2nd 18:04Penalty
  • 2nd 18:04Penalty
  • 2nd 18:04Penalty
  • 3rd 14:29Penalty