Chicago Wolves at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Chicago Wolves

3:2

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

CHIRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.12.5
High danger: 23
Chances: 69
Shots: 2928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal28

6Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances3

2.13Expected goals2.51

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–5	4–2	2–1	1.3–0.5
2nd	7–17	0–5	0–2	0.4–1.7
3rd	6–6	2–2	0–0	0.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: -0.87

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.51
GSAx: +0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:00Bradly Nadeau (1–0)high · 21 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 10:02Penalty
1st 12:20Artyom Levshunov (1–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
1st 18:01Penalty
1st 19:17Domenick Fensore (2–1)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 1:31Penalty
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 7:16Joey Anderson (2–2)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
2nd 9:05Penalty
2nd 15:04Bradly Nadeau (3–2)low · 58 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 1:07Penalty
3rd 18:38Penalty