Springfield Thunderbirds at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Springfield Thunderbirds

4:1

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

SPRIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.22.1
High danger: 22
Chances: 77
Shots: 2228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal28

7Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances2

2.24Expected goals2.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	4–2	1–1	1.1–0.9
2nd	10–2	3–1	1–0	1.0–0.2
3rd	2–13	0–4	0–1	0.1–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	13:34	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +1.14

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: -1.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:42Penalty
1st 15:59Penalty
1st 16:48Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (1–0)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 0:17Hunter Skinner (2–0)low · 32 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 11:38Penalty
2nd 15:01Penalty
2nd 15:06Dalibor Dvorský (3–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 16:05Penalty
3rd 3:44Penalty
3rd 5:43Carson Lambos (3–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 15:34Matt Luff (4–1)empty net · low · 124 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj