AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 31

Ontario Reign at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Ontario Reign
2:1
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ONTTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
84%16%
xG
3.32.1
High danger
40
Chances
139
Shots
3122

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal22
13Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances0
3.33Expected goals2.07

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–98–21–01.7–0.7
2nd6–62–12–00.6–0.4
3rd8–73–61–01.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
3.33
GSAx
+1.33
Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
22
Saves
21
Allowed
1
xGA
2.07
GSAx
+1.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:20Penalty
  • 1st 5:20Penalty
  • 2nd 5:32Jack Studnicka (1–0)high · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 6:11Charles Hudon (2–0)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 6:56Penalty
  • 2nd 11:40Penalty
  • 2nd 16:14Penalty
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 2nd 19:09Penalty
  • 3rd 2:20Penalty
  • 3rd 4:07Egor Sokolov (2–1)5v4 · low · 18 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 6:34Penalty
  • 3rd 6:34Penalty
  • 3rd 6:34Penalty
  • 3rd 6:37Penalty
  • 3rd 16:33Penalty