AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 31

Toronto Marlies at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Toronto Marlies
3:1
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TORSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
82%18%
xG
3.01.6
High danger
63
Chances
146
Shots
3120

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal20
14Scoring chances6
6High-danger chances3
2.98Expected goals1.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–33–11–10.6–0.2
2nd9–55–22–11.0–0.6
3rd11–126–33–11.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
2.98
GSAx
-0.02
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
20
Saves
19
Allowed
1
xGA
1.55
GSAx
+0.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:02Penalty
  • 1st 8:08Penalty
  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 1st 18:56Penalty
  • 2nd 7:11Penalty
  • 2nd 8:58Alex Nylander (1–0)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 9:20Penalty
  • 2nd 11:25Alex Steeves (2–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 11:34Jan Myšák (2–1)high · 18 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 15:58Penalty
  • 2nd 18:54Penalty
  • 3rd 5:00Penalty
  • 3rd 16:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:05Penalty
  • 3rd 18:15Alex Nylander (3–1)5v4 · grade A · 16 ft · beat Calle Clang