Calgary Wranglers at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Calgary Wranglers

5:1

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CGYABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 2.72.8
High danger: 84
Chances: 1011
Shots: 2031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances11

8High-danger chances4

2.66Expected goals2.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	2–3	2–1	0.8–0.8
2nd	7–8	4–4	3–3	1.0–1.1
3rd	5–13	4–4	3–0	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	3	9:51 of the 3rd	10:09	10:09	+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: +1.83

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 15
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: -2.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:58Martin Frk (1–0)low · 51 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 6:17Penalty
1st 13:25Penalty
1st 18:45Penalty
1st 19:52Sam Morton (2–0)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 0:27Penalty
2nd 2:19Penalty
2nd 13:27Lucas Ciona (3–0)high · 8 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 14:10Penalty
2nd 14:10Penalty
2nd 15:58Penalty
2nd 16:05Penalty
2nd 16:50Arshdeep Bains (3–1)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 17:54Penalty
2nd 19:19Penalty
3rd 9:51Lucas Ciona (4–1)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 18:27Jonathan Aspirot (5–1)empty net · low · 32 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs