Henderson Silver Knights at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

2:6

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

HSKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 1.93.9
High danger: 27
Chances: 716
Shots: 2440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal40

7Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances7

1.88Expected goals3.88

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–15	6–5	1–2	1.1–1.3
2nd	8–15	1–5	1–2	0.6–1.3
3rd	4–10	0–6	0–3	0.1–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 34
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.88
GSAx: -2.12

Vitek Vanecek

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.88
GSAx: -0.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:56Danil Gushchin (0–1)low · 21 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 7:42Penalty
1st 10:46Mason Morelli (1–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Vitek Vanecek
1st 12:20Jake Bischoff (2–1)low · 55 ft · beat Vitek Vanecek
1st 18:04Penalty
2nd 3:44Tristen Robins (2–2)high · 8 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 8:04Penalty
2nd 17:23Penalty
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:43Luca Cagnoni (2–3)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 12:01Anthony Vincent (2–4)high · 10 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 18:15Collin Graf (2–5)empty net · high · 12 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 18:53Lucas Carlsson (2–6)low · 28 ft · beat Akira Schmid